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January 2026
Investment contracts for leasing, less risk, lower rents

The two bills relating to the housing measures package were approved in general terms. They are now being discussed in detail. To complete the set of measures, focused on taxation and Simplex, we are now awaiting the presentation of the reform of the rental regime, the new-new-new NRAU.

Foto de Ricardo Guimarães

Ricardo Guimarães
Director at Ci

The range of new features is vast and has been widely debated. Focused on the lack of supply, it is disruptive compared to previous packages, promoting new market dynamics that contribute to its normalization. Based on positive stimuli, it breaks with the imposing and restrictive rationale that dominated previous policies, based on the premise of conflict between the parties and, above all, on a need to curb demand dynamics which, having obvious externalities, are the basis for the growth of the Portuguese economy and, therefore, for employment and family livelihoods.

I welcome the measures to stimulate the market for sales at moderate prices, namely the reduction in VAT on construction and renovation work. I am particularly interested in the package because of the vision it brings to the rental market.

Often debated, it is widely agreed that the major obstacle to renting has been absolute legislative instability, total unpredictability, and legal uncertainty, all within a framework of legal inefficiency and delays in the justice system, always to the detriment of investors and, therefore, investment. In fact, as can be seen in our market, this is always to the detriment of families and tenants, as all the uncertainty surrounding investors falls on families, exposing them to less supply, higher rents, and shorter contracts. For those who like experimental economics, Portugal is the ideal laboratory....

As I have said, investors do not need operating conditions to be perfect. But they do need them to be reliable, predictable, and effective.

For all these reasons, of the entire fiscal package, the point that most interests me is the creation of the Investment Lease Agreement (CIA).

The “cê,” “i,” and ‘à’ (to avoid “sia”) are a figure that is as innovative and disruptive as it is old and normal, as they are nothing more than a replication of practices commonly used to attract large international investment operations, typically framed in contracts that set future operating conditions, immunizing these investments from uncertainty and political cycles.

They are a wonderful example of how context costs can be reduced, thereby reducing risk and rents, without burdening the State Budget.

As yields habitacionais fecharam 2025 em 5,8% em ambas as Áreas Metropolitanas de Lisboa e do Porto (dados SIR). Comparando com os 3,2% das OTs a 10 anos, é evidente o prémio de risco pago pelas famílias. Só pelo efeito da redução do risco, se o prémio face às OTs descesse de 260 para 160 pontos base, ainda assim mantendo-se atrativo, as rendas poderiam baixar instantaneamente em 17% (ceteris paribus, naturalmente).

These contracts, which must be formalized with the IHRU, set the operating conditions for 25 years, provided that 70% of the property is leased at moderate rents. In addition to a significant set of tax benefits in terms of IMT, IS, IMI, and VAT on construction and projects, Article 5, relating to economic and financial rebalancing, states that "Legislative and regulatory changes that alter the system for setting and updating rents or other relevant contractual arrangements that affect the economic and financial balance of contracts (...) entitle the investor to compensation under the terms (...) of public contracts."

In other words, over the course of these 25 years, no government can interfere with these contracts, undermining their profitability, under penalty of compensation.

I believe this is a clearly courageous and innovative measure, capable of establishing the confidence that investors and families demand. It could be an essential piece in making the desired build-to-rent viable. 

But, of course, everything depends on the quality of the conditions that are set, because if the reform of the new-new NRAU is not bold, ensuring effective conditions of attractiveness for investors, the “cê,” “i,” and “à” will not be seen here.

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